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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Indianapolis Colts
4th & 1 at the 1
Indianapolis Colts 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0
What Actually Happened
(8:07) 17-D.Jones up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+3.72 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
71% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.21 EP
- 29% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.15 EP
KICK
+1.23 EP
- 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.25 EP
- 1% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT
-0.36 EP
- Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
