Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 20 at the 71

Pittsburgh Steelers 27 – Indianapolis Colts 17

(1:13) 3-C.Waitman punts 59 yards to IND 12, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-26-B.Echols. Penalty on IND-31-T.Goodson, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.95 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +0.43 EP
73% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 71, worth -2.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model