4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 64

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(8:39) 3-C.Waitman punts 44 yards to IND 20, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 1-J.Downs to IND 32 for 12 yards (15-B.Skowronek).

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.79 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 64, worth -3.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.21 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 22, worth -1.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP