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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Indianapolis Colts
4th & 1 at the 7
Indianapolis Colts 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0
What Actually Happened
(9:38) 28-J.Taylor left guard to PIT 5 for 2 yards (95-K.Benton).
The Three Options
GO
+3.84 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.47 EP
- 29% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 7, worth -0.18 EP
KICK
+1.20 EP
- 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.24 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT
-0.35 EP
- Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
