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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 57

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(7:12) 3-C.Waitman punts 37 yards to IND 20, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 1-J.Downs.

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.37 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 57, worth -3.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 17, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP