Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- GB offense: +0.139 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
- QB edge to GB: Jordan Love (GB) +0.221 vs Bryce Young (CAR) -0.028 EPA/dropback
- CAR offense: -0.041 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
- CAR defense: +0.067 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 9
CAR
GB
Pulled fresh for 2025 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q2 07:57 FG GB (7:57) 17-B.McManus 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. CAR 0 – GB 3
- Q2 02:26 TD CAR (2:26) 5-R.Dowdle up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – GB 3
- Q2 00:05 FG GB (:05) 17-B.McManus 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. CAR 7 – GB 6
- Q3 02:15 TD CAR (2:15) 5-R.Dowdle left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CAR-5-R.Dowdle, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. CAR 13 – GB 6
- Q4 02:35 TD GB (2:35) (Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs up the middle to CAR 1 for no gain (56-C.Rozeboom). Green Bay challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 13 – GB 12
- Q4 00:01 FG CAR (:01) 10-R.Fitzgerald 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. CAR 16 – GB 13
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CAR 4th & 10 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(12:31) 6-S.Martin punts 51 yards to GB 22, Center-44-J.Jansen. 87-R.Doubs to GB 28 for 6 yards (87-B.Tremayne; 55-M.Njongmeta).
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Q1 CAR 4th & 1 at the 59Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 71%
(3:47) 9-B.Young scrambles left end pushed ob at CAR 45 for 4 yards (56-E.Cooper).
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Q2 CAR 4th & 1 at the 6Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%
(3:15) 5-R.Dowdle up the middle to GB 5 for 1 yard (94-K.Brooks; 29-X.McKinney).
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Q2 GB 4th & 6 at the 8Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 97%
(:05) 17-B.McManus 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
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Q3 GB 4th & 4 at the 25Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EPp(convert) 48% p(FG) 85%
(10:38) 17-B.McManus 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
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Q3 CAR 4th & 4 at the 49Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47% p(FG) 27%
(7:48) 6-S.Martin punts 38 yards to GB 11, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 87-R.Doubs.
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Q4 GB 4th & 4 at the 36Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50% p(FG) 62%
(14:55) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 30-C.Brooks pushed ob at CAR 28 for 8 yards (56-C.Rozeboom).
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Q4 GB 4th & 8 at the 13Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 96%
(11:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short right to 87-R.Doubs [11-N.Scourton].
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Q4 CAR 4th & 10 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(7:35) 6-S.Martin punts 45 yards to GB 29, Center-44-J.Jansen. 87-R.Doubs pushed ob at GB 29 for no gain (0-J.Sanders).
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Q4 GB 4th & 3 at the 43Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56% p(FG) 42%
(5:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 18-M.Heath to CAR 32 for 11 yards (26-C.Smith-Wade).