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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 59

Carolina Panthers 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:47) 9-B.Young scrambles left end pushed ob at CAR 45 for 4 yards (56-E.Cooper).

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.93 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 18, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model