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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 6

Carolina Panthers 0 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(3:15) 5-R.Dowdle up the middle to GB 5 for 1 yard (94-K.Brooks; 29-X.McKinney).

The Three Options

GO +3.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.69 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 6, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.42 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model