Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 73

Carolina Panthers 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

(12:31) 6-S.Martin punts 51 yards to GB 22, Center-44-J.Jansen. 87-R.Doubs to GB 28 for 6 yards (87-B.Tremayne; 55-M.Njongmeta).

The Three Options

GO -2.35 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.60 EP
65% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model