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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 25

Green Bay Packers 6 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(10:38) 17-B.McManus 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +1.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.66 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
What Happened
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP