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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 8

Green Bay Packers 3 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(:05) 17-B.McManus 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +1.57 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +3.88 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 8, worth +0.06 EP
KICK +2.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.91 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.02 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model