Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 74

Carolina Panthers 13 – Green Bay Packers 6

(7:35) 6-S.Martin punts 45 yards to GB 29, Center-44-J.Jansen. 87-R.Doubs pushed ob at GB 29 for no gain (0-J.Sanders).

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.62 EP
64% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model