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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 49

Carolina Panthers 7 – Green Bay Packers 6

What Actually Happened

(7:48) 6-S.Martin punts 38 yards to GB 11, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 87-R.Doubs.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.94 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
KICK -1.68 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model