4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
ATL Away

Atlanta Falcons

HC Raheem Morris
@
NE Home

New England Patriots

HC Mike Vrabel
Sunday 2025-11-02 · 13:00 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US ☀️ Clear Spread 5.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

ATL
27.2%
NE
72.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: +0.121 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • Drake Maye (NE): +0.209 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NE defense: -0.061 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • ATL defense: +0.047 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (19th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ATL 19
–
NE 27
Projected margin: NE by 8 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

ATL

Storm Norton T Out Foot
Zach Harrison DT Out Knee
Casey Washington WR Out Back
Billy Bowman Jr. CB Out Hamstring
Leonard Floyd LB Questionable Hamstring
Jessie Bates S Questionable Knee
Jalon Walker LB Questionable Groin

NE

Rhamondre Stevenson RB Out Toe

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 23
–
NE 24

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:48 TD NE (7:48) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep left to 3-D.Douglas for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 0 – NE 6
  • Q1 00:29 TD ATL (:29) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 5-D.London for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 6 – NE 7
  • Q2 08:56 TD NE (8:56) 26-T.Jennings left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 7 – NE 13
  • Q2 05:18 TD NE (5:18) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 8-S.Diggs for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 7 – NE 20
  • Q2 00:16 TD ATL (:16) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 5-D.London for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 13 – NE 21
  • Q3 06:30 FG NE (6:30) 36-A.Borregales 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer. ATL 14 – NE 24
  • Q4 14:12 FG ATL (14:12) 39-J.Romo 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ATL 17 – NE 24
  • Q4 04:44 TD ATL (4:44) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 5-D.London for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 23 – NE 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 12 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:27) 13-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to NE 25, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 9 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 26%

    (4:56) 13-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to NE 6, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 5 at the 89
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (3:30) 17-B.Baringer punts 57 yards to ATL 32, Center-47-J.Ashby. 14-J.Agnew ran ob at ATL 47 for 15 yards (53-C.Elliss).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 7 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (7:52) 13-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to NE 28, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 2 at the 29
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 81%

    (1:21) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short right to 5-D.London (0-C.Gonzalez).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 13 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (6:30) 36-A.Borregales 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 6 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (5:34) 13-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to NE 35, Center-49-L.McCullough. 25-M.Jones to NE 48 for 13 yards (28-M.Ford).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 6 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 92%

    (14:12) 39-J.Romo 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 12 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 38%

    (9:47) 17-B.Baringer punts 32 yards to ATL 15, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 14-J.Agnew.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 4 at the 20
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 92%

    (6:03) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 5-D.London to NE 10 for 10 yards (7-C.Davis).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 8 at the 8 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 98%

    (4:44) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 5-D.London for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 6 at the 67 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (3:43) 17-B.Baringer punts 61 yards to ATL 6, Center-47-J.Ashby. 14-J.Agnew pushed ob at ATL 19 for 13 yards (47-J.Ashby).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 20 at the 58 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (2:03) 13-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to NE 16, Center-49-L.McCullough. 25-M.Jones to NE 18 for 2 yards (84-F.Franks; 4-K.Hodge).