Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 67

New England Patriots 24 – Atlanta Falcons 23

(3:43) 17-B.Baringer punts 61 yards to ATL 6, Center-47-J.Ashby. 14-J.Agnew pushed ob at ATL 19 for 13 yards (47-J.Ashby).

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.39 EP
54% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 67, worth -3.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model