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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 20

Atlanta Falcons 17 – New England Patriots 24

What Actually Happened

(6:03) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 5-D.London to NE 10 for 10 yards (7-C.Davis).

The Three Options

GO +1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.51 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 20, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 30, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model