Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 67

Atlanta Falcons 7 – New England Patriots 14

(7:52) 13-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to NE 28, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.84 EP
60% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 67, worth -3.92 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model