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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Atlanta Falcons
4th & 9 at the 52
Atlanta Falcons 0 – New England Patriots 7
What Actually Happened
(4:56) 13-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to NE 6, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds.
The Three Options
GO
-1.06 EP
-
34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.84 EP
- 66% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 52, worth -3.09 EP
KICK
-1.89 EP
- 26% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
- 74% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT
-0.81 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 15, worth -0.81 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
