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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 89

New England Patriots 7 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(3:30) 17-B.Baringer punts 57 yards to ATL 32, Center-47-J.Ashby. 14-J.Agnew ran ob at ATL 47 for 15 yards (53-C.Elliss).

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.96 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 89, worth -4.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.40 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 46, worth -2.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP