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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 8

Atlanta Falcons 17 – New England Patriots 24

What Actually Happened

(4:44) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 5-D.London for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.56 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.76 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 8, worth -0.33 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model