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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 29

Atlanta Falcons 7 – New England Patriots 21

What Actually Happened

(1:21) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short right to 5-D.London (0-C.Gonzalez).

The Three Options

GO +1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.36 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 29, worth -1.25 EP
KICK +0.98 EP
  • 81% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 39, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model