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New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll
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PHI Home

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
Sunday 2025-01-05 · 13:00 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US 💨 Windy Spread 3.0 O/U 36.5

Win Probability

NYG
21.4%
PHI
78.6%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PHI offense: +0.159 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • NYG offense: -0.100 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • PHI defense: -0.166 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • NYG defense: +0.141 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Drew Lock (NYG): -0.081 EPA/dropback in prior starts (NYG starting Drew Lock in place of Tommy DeVito)
  • Wind 19 mph

Predicted Final Score

NYG 15
–
PHI 26
Projected margin: PHI by 11 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

NYG

Micah McFadden LB Out Neck
Evan Neal T Out Rib
John Michael Schmitz C Out Ankle
Armon Watts DT Out Knee
Greg Stroman CB Out Shin

PHI

Jalen Hurts QB Out Concussion
A.J. Brown WR Doubtful Knee
DeVonta Smith WR Doubtful Wrist
Nakobe Dean LB Doubtful Abdomen
Saquon Barkley RB Doubtful Not injury related - coach's decision
Zack Baun LB Doubtful Not injury related - coach's decision
Jalen Carter DT Doubtful Not injury related - coach's decision
Landon Dickerson G Doubtful Not injury related - coach's decision
Lane Johnson T Doubtful Not injury related - coach's decision
Jordan Mailata T Doubtful Not injury related - coach's decision
Darius Slay CB Doubtful Not injury related - coach's decision
Kenny Pickett QB Questionable Ribs
Will Shipley RB Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 13
–
PHI 20

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:58 TD PHI (6:58) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short left to 82-A.Smith for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – PHI 6
  • Q2 01:47 FG PHI (1:47) 4-J.Elliott 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. NYG 0 – PHI 10
  • Q3 07:38 FG NYG (7:38) 9-G.Gano 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. NYG 3 – PHI 10
  • Q4 15:00 TD PHI (15:00) 16-T.McKee pass short right to 84-E.Jenkins for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 3 – PHI 16
  • Q4 10:41 TD NYG (10:41) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass deep right to 1-M.Nabers for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 9 – PHI 17
  • Q4 07:26 FG NYG (7:26) 9-G.Gano 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. NYG 13 – PHI 17
  • Q4 00:51 FG PHI (:51) 4-J.Elliott 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. NYG 13 – PHI 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 7 at the 49
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 23%

    (8:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass incomplete short left to 86-D.Slayton (22-K.Ringo).

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 7 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (5:22) 6-J.Gillan punts 43 yards to PHI 14, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 83-J.Dotson.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 2 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 58%

    (:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short left to 88-D.Goedert to NYG 27 for 9 yards (39-D.Wilson).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 4 at the 21
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 89%

    (14:10) 4-J.Elliott 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 3 at the 64
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (12:11) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 24-D.Belton. 24-D.Belton right end pushed ob at NYG 46 for 10 yards (52-D.Gant).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 1 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 33%

    (9:29) 26-D.Singletary left guard to PHI 42 for 3 yards (42-O.Burks; 0-B.Huff).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 2 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 63%

    (6:58) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass incomplete deep right to 1-M.Nabers (34-I.Rodgers).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 5 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%

    (1:47) 4-J.Elliott 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (:50) 6-J.Gillan punts 35 yards to PHI 28, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 83-J.Dotson.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 10 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 33%

    (:13) 10-B.Mann punts 33 yards to NYG 12, Center-49-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-58-J.Hunt.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 2 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 61%

    (13:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete short left to 82-A.Smith (39-D.Wilson).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 3 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

    (7:38) 9-G.Gano 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 12 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (6:04) 10-B.Mann punts 59 yards to NYG 14, Center-49-R.Lovato. 87-I.Smith-Marsette to NYG 14 for no gain (22-K.Ringo).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 5 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (3:54) 6-J.Gillan punts 42 yards to PHI 39, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 83-J.Dotson.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 20 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (9:05) 10-B.Mann punts 48 yards to NYG 37, Center-49-R.Lovato. 87-I.Smith-Marsette to PHI 38 for 25 yards (34-I.Rodgers; 81-G.Calcaterra).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 7 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 61%

    (7:26) 9-G.Gano 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 7 at the 14 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 95%

    (:51) 4-J.Elliott 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.