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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 14

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – New York Giants 13

What Actually Happened

(:51) 4-J.Elliott 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +0.96 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +2.76 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 14, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +2.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 24, worth -0.52 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model