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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 45

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(:13) 10-B.Mann punts 33 yards to NYG 12, Center-49-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-58-J.Hunt.

The Three Options

GO +0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +2.24 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 45, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +0.46 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.89 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -0.71 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP