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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 63

New York Giants 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(:50) 6-J.Gillan punts 35 yards to PHI 28, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 83-J.Dotson.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.46 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 63, worth -3.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 21, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model