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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 36

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short left to 88-D.Goedert to NYG 27 for 9 yards (39-D.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO +1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.79 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 36, worth -1.62 EP
KICK +0.13 EP
  • 58% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 46, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model