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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 35

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(13:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete short left to 82-A.Smith (39-D.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO +1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.92 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 35, worth -1.64 EP
KICK +0.10 EP
  • 61% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 45, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model