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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 35

New York Giants 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

What Actually Happened

(7:26) 9-G.Gano 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.24 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 35, worth -1.56 EP
KICK +0.16 EP
What Happened
  • 61% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 45, worth -2.07 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model