Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 20 at the 85

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – New York Giants 10

(9:05) 10-B.Mann punts 48 yards to NYG 37, Center-49-R.Lovato. 87-I.Smith-Marsette to PHI 38 for 25 yards (34-I.Rodgers; 81-G.Calcaterra).

The Three Options

GO -2.89 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.59 EP
69% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 85, worth -4.90 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model