4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
CLE Away

Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
@
BAL Home

Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Saturday 2025-01-04 · 16:30 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US 💨 Windy Spread 19.5 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

CLE
9.7%
BAL
90.3%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to BAL: Lamar Jackson (BAL) +0.422 vs Bailey Zappe (CLE) -0.207 EPA/dropback (CLE starting Bailey Zappe in place of Jameis Winston)
  • CLE offense: -0.201 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • BAL offense: +0.217 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • BAL defense: -0.077 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • BAL on 4 more days rest than CLE
  • Wind 16 mph

Predicted Final Score

CLE 14
–
BAL 30
Projected margin: BAL by 16 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

CLE

Jordan Hicks LB Out Concussion
David Njoku TE Out Knee
Pierre Strong RB Out Concussion
Denzel Ward CB Out Shoulder
Jerome Ford RB Out Ankle
Dalvin Tomlinson DT Questionable Knee
Devin Bush LB Questionable Thigh
Cameron Mitchell CB Questionable Knee
Ogbonnia Okoronkwo DE Questionable Knee
Blake Whiteheart TE Questionable Knee
Jameis Winston QB Questionable Right Shoulder
Mike Woods WR Questionable Knee

BAL

Justice Hill RB Out Concussion
Jalyn Armour-Davis CB Out Hamstring
Charlie Kolar TE Questionable Forearm
Patrick Mekari G Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 10
–
BAL 35

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:38 TD BAL (8:38) (Shotgun) 2-B.Zappe pass short right intended for 8-E.Moore INTERCEPTED by 2-N.Wiggins at CLE 26. 2-N.Wiggins for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 0 – BAL 6
  • Q2 11:08 TD BAL (11:08) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 89-M.Andrews for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 0 – BAL 13
  • Q2 06:36 FG CLE (6:36) 7-D.Hopkins 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 3 – BAL 14
  • Q3 10:47 TD BAL (10:47) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 7-R.Bateman for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 3 – BAL 20
  • Q4 11:39 TD CLE (11:39) (Shotgun) 2-B.Zappe pass short left to 88-J.Akins for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 9 – BAL 21
  • Q4 06:48 TD BAL (6:48) 66-B.Cleveland reported in as eligible. 22-D.Henry left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 10 – BAL 27
  • Q4 03:13 TD BAL (3:13) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left end for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 10 – BAL 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 4 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 40%

    (12:16) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Touchback.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 4 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 30%

    (9:27) 11-J.Stout punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68%

    (6:18) 68-M.Dunn reported in as eligible. 2-B.Zappe pass incomplete deep middle to 3-J.Jeudy (44-M.Humphrey).

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 1 at the 9
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 97%

    (2:45) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short right to 22-D.Henry [9-G.Delpit].

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (14:26) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 26 yards to CLE 47, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%

    (6:36) 7-D.Hopkins 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 3 at the 23
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 87%

    (3:03) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short middle to 89-M.Andrews (29-C.Mitchell) [97-J.Briggs].

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 7 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (2:00) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 62 yards to BAL 12, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 18-S.Sims to BAL 30 for 18 yards (37-Da.Bell). PENALTY on BAL-2-N.Wiggins, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 20.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 10 at the 52
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 20%

    (:04) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep middle to 80-I.Likely (12-R.McLeod).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 2 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (10:03) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to BAL 18, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 18-S.Sims to BAL 25 for 7 yards (31-M.Ford).

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 9 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 40%

    (6:48) 11-J.Stout punts 33 yards to CLE 10, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 18 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (4:12) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 41 yards to BAL 40, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 18-S.Sims to BAL 41 for 1 yard (40-N.Watson).

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 8 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (3:20) 11-J.Stout punts 29 yards to CLE 28, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-54-K.Welch.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 4 at the 49 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 25%

    (4:40) (Shotgun) 2-B.Zappe pass incomplete short middle to 3-J.Jeudy (49-C.Board).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 2 at the 70 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66%

    (:33) 11-J.Stout punts 70 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.