4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 23

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(3:03) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short middle to 89-M.Andrews (29-C.Mitchell) [97-J.Briggs].

The Three Options

GO +2.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.58 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 23, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
  • 87% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 33, worth -1.31 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model