Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 57

Baltimore Ravens 21 – Cleveland Browns 3

(3:20) 11-J.Stout punts 29 yards to CLE 28, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-54-K.Welch.

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.83 EP
58% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 57, worth -3.01 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model