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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 62

Cleveland Browns 3 – Baltimore Ravens 21

What Actually Happened

(10:03) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to BAL 18, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 18-S.Sims to BAL 25 for 7 yards (31-M.Ford).

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.97 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 62, worth -3.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 21, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP