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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 52

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(:04) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep middle to 80-I.Likely (12-R.McLeod).

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
What Happened
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +1.49 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 52, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 20% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -0.51 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 15, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model