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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 70

Baltimore Ravens 35 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(:33) 11-J.Stout punts 70 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +0.41 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 70, worth -1.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 28, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model