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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 18 at the 81

Cleveland Browns 3 – Baltimore Ravens 21

What Actually Happened

(4:12) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 41 yards to BAL 40, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 18-S.Sims to BAL 41 for 1 yard (40-N.Watson).

The Three Options

GO -3.23 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.79 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 81, worth -4.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 38, worth -2.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model