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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 79

Cleveland Browns 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(14:26) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 26 yards to CLE 47, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.56 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.23 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 79, worth -4.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 36, worth -1.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model