4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
BUF Away

Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
@
NE Home

New England Patriots

HC Jerod Mayo
Sunday 2025-01-05 · 13:00 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 36.5

Win Probability

BUF
65.2%
NE
34.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: +0.250 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • QB edge to NE: Joe Milton III (NE) +0.157 vs Mitchell Trubisky (BUF) -0.027 EPA/dropback (NE starting Joe Milton III in place of Drake Maye; BUF starting Mitchell Trubisky in place of Josh Allen)
  • NE offense: -0.086 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • NE defense: +0.072 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BUF 25
–
NE 19
Projected margin: BUF by 6 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

BUF

Terrel Bernard LB Out Quadricep
Curtis Samuel WR Questionable Rib

NE

Ben Brown C Out Concussion
Christian Gonzalez CB Out Concussion
Ja'Lynn Polk WR Out Shoulder
Jabrill Peppers S Out Hamstring
Sione Takitaki LB Questionable Knee
Kyle Dugger S Questionable Ankle
Hunter Henry TE Questionable Foot
Anfernee Jennings LB Questionable Knee
Titus Leo DE Questionable Ankle
Drake Maye QB Questionable Right Hand

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 16
–
NE 23

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:28 TD NE (4:28) (Shotgun) 19-J.Milton left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. 19-J.Milton 1st NFL TD. BUF 0 – NE 6
  • Q2 12:14 TD BUF (12:14) 11-M.Trubisky pass short right to 22-R.Davis for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 6 – NE 7
  • Q2 09:22 TD NE (9:22) (Shotgun) 19-J.Milton pass deep middle to 9-K.Boutte for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 19-Milton 1st NFL TD pass. BUF 7 – NE 13
  • Q2 04:44 FG BUF (4:44) 2-T.Bass 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. BUF 10 – NE 14
  • Q3 07:59 TD BUF (7:59) 4-J.Cook up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 16 – NE 14
  • Q3 01:04 FG NE (1:04) 13-J.Slye 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer. BUF 16 – NE 17
  • Q4 08:58 FG NE (8:58) 13-J.Slye 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer. BUF 16 – NE 20
  • Q4 02:00 FG NE (2:00) 13-J.Slye 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer. BUF 16 – NE 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 1 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 74% p(FG) 37%

    (11:50) 11-M.Trubisky FUMBLES (Aborted) at NE 45, and recovers at NE 45. 11-M.Trubisky to NE 45 for no gain (91-D.Wise).

  • Q1 NE 4th & 1 at the 19
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 92%

    (7:35) (No Huddle) 19-J.Milton up the middle to BUF 18 for 1 yard (90-D.Carter).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 99%

    (12:14) 11-M.Trubisky pass short right to 22-R.Davis for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 7 at the 31
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 74%

    (4:44) 2-T.Bass 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 17 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 48%

    (2:00) 17-B.Baringer punts 36 yards to BUF 5, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-27-M.Dial.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 8 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (:09) 8-S.Martin punts 34 yards to NE 24, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-5-K.Elam.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 10 at the 35
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 64%

    (11:14) 8-S.Martin punts 29 yards to NE 6, impetus ends at NE 1, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-69-R.Ferguson.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 10 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 87%

    (1:04) 13-J.Slye 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (14:14) 8-S.Martin punts 42 yards to NE 21, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 14-A.Erickson to NE 21 for no gain (26-Ty.Johnson).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 5 at the 47
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 32%

    (5:25) (Shotgun) 14-M.White pass short right to 1-C.Samuel to NE 44 for 3 yards (29-I.Bolden; 53-C.Elliss).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 8 at the 54 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (4:24) 17-B.Baringer punts 39 yards to BUF 15, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 29-B.Codrington.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 7 at the 82 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (3:26) 8-S.Martin punts 53 yards to NE 29, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 14-A.Erickson ran ob at BUF 45 for 26 yards (26-Ty.Johnson).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 7 at the 31 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 74%

    (2:00) 13-J.Slye 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 10 at the 71 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (1:31) (Shotgun) 14-M.White pass incomplete short right to 0-K.Coleman (33-A.Jennings) [33-A.Jennings].