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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 45

Buffalo Bills 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(11:50) 11-M.Trubisky FUMBLES (Aborted) at NE 45, and recovers at NE 45. 11-M.Trubisky to NE 45 for no gain (91-D.Wise).

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.82 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 45, worth -2.79 EP
KICK -1.60 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.16 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -3.20 EP
PUNT -0.63 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model