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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 63

Buffalo Bills 16 – New England Patriots 17

What Actually Happened

(14:14) 8-S.Martin punts 42 yards to NE 21, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 14-A.Erickson to NE 21 for no gain (26-Ty.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.63 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 63, worth -3.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 21, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP