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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Buffalo Bills
4th & 2 at the 2
Buffalo Bills 0 – New England Patriots 7
What Actually Happened
(12:14) 11-M.Trubisky pass short right to 22-R.Davis for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+3.30 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
59% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.30 EP
- 41% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 2, worth +0.43 EP
KICK
+1.33 EP
- 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.36 EP
- 1% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT
-0.32 EP
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
