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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 82

Buffalo Bills 16 – New England Patriots 20

What Actually Happened

(3:26) 8-S.Martin punts 53 yards to NE 29, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 14-A.Erickson ran ob at BUF 45 for 26 yards (26-Ty.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.96 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 82, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 40, worth -1.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model