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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 31

Buffalo Bills 7 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(4:44) 2-T.Bass 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.17 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 31, worth -1.59 EP
KICK +0.51 EP
What Happened
  • 74% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.47 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 41, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP