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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 54

New England Patriots 20 – Buffalo Bills 16

What Actually Happened

(4:24) 17-B.Baringer punts 39 yards to BUF 15, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 29-B.Codrington.

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.13 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 54, worth -2.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 16, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model