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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 71

Buffalo Bills 16 – New England Patriots 23

What Actually Happened

(1:31) (Shotgun) 14-M.White pass incomplete short right to 0-K.Coleman (33-A.Jennings) [33-A.Jennings].

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.53 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 71, worth -1.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 29, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model