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Cleveland Browns

3-12 HC Kevin Stefanski
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Cincinnati Bengals

7-8 HC Zac Taylor
Sunday 2024-12-22 · 13:00 ET Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati US ☀️ Clear Spread 10.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

CLE
31.3%
CIN
68.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.130 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • QB edge to CIN: Joe Burrow (CIN) +0.196 vs Jameis Winston (CLE) -0.059 EPA/dropback
  • CIN defense: +0.075 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • CIN offense: +0.080 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

CLE 21 14–28
–
CIN 26 19–33
Projected margin: CIN by 5 Projected total: 47

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 16

CLE

Shelby Harris DT Out Elbow
Martin Emerson CB Questionable Concussion
David Njoku TE Questionable Hamstring
Cedric Tillman WR Questionable Concussion
Jameis Winston QB Questionable Right Shoulder

CIN

Sam Hubbard DE Out Knee
Tanner Hudson TE Out Knee
Sheldon Rankins DT Out Illness
Alex Cappa G Questionable Concussion
Orlando Brown T Questionable Fibula
Charlie Jones WR Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 6
–
CIN 24

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:18 TD CIN (7:18) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 5-T.Higgins for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-D.Tomlinson]. CLE 0 – CIN 6
  • Q2 07:36 TD CIN (7:36) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 80-A.Iosivas for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 0 – CIN 13
  • Q2 00:03 FG CIN (:03) 3-C.York 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. CLE 0 – CIN 17
  • Q3 05:53 TD CLE (5:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 34-J.Ford right tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 6 – CIN 17
  • Q4 01:49 TD CIN (1:49) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 1-J.Chase for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CLE-95-M.Garrett, Defensive Offside, declined. CLE 6 – CIN 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 8 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (5:43) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to CIN 27, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 18-I.Williams.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CIN 4th & 3 at the 28
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 82%

    (1:22) 3-C.York 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CLE 4th & 11 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (14:57) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 40 yards to CIN 24, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 18-I.Williams to CIN 26 for 2 yards (31-M.Ford).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CIN 4th & 2 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (13:20) 8-R.Rehkow punts 43 yards to CLE 23, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CLE 4th & 16 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (11:45) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to CIN 40, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 18-I.Williams to 50 for 10 yards (40-N.Watson, 12-R.McLeod).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CLE 4th & 9 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (4:02) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to CIN 19, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 18-I.Williams to CIN 32 for 13 yards (43-M.Diabate).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CIN 4th & 14 at the 41
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 54%

    (:03) 3-C.York 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CIN 4th & 9 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (11:20) 8-R.Rehkow punts 45 yards to CLE 18, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 11-J.Proche pushed ob at CLE 30 for 12 yards (26-T.Anderson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CIN 4th & 16 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (4:28) 8-R.Rehkow punts 62 yards to CLE 18, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 11-J.Proche to CLE 36 for 18 yards (45-M.Njongmeta; 89-D.Sample).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CIN 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (11:26) 8-R.Rehkow punts 56 yards to CLE 15, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CLE 4th & 8 at the 59 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 36%

    (3:00) (Shotgun) 17-D.Thompson-Robinson pass short left to 85-D.Njoku ran ob at CIN 47 for 12 yards.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CLE 4th & 16 at the 57 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 26%

    (:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-D.Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete deep middle to 8-E.Moore (59-A.Davis-Gaither).

    See the full breakdown →