Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- CLE offense: -0.130 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
- QB edge to CIN: Joe Burrow (CIN) +0.196 vs Jameis Winston (CLE) -0.037 EPA/dropback
- CIN offense: +0.080 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
- CIN defense: +0.075 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 16
CLE
CIN
Pulled fresh for 2024 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 07:18 TD CIN (7:18) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 5-T.Higgins for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-D.Tomlinson]. CLE 0 – CIN 6
- Q2 07:36 TD CIN (7:36) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 80-A.Iosivas for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 0 – CIN 13
- Q2 00:03 FG CIN (:03) 3-C.York 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. CLE 0 – CIN 17
- Q3 05:53 TD CLE (5:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 34-J.Ford right tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 6 – CIN 17
- Q4 01:49 TD CIN (1:49) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 1-J.Chase for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CLE-95-M.Garrett, Defensive Offside, declined. CLE 6 – CIN 23
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CLE 4th & 8 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(5:43) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to CIN 27, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 18-I.Williams.
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Q1 CIN 4th & 3 at the 28Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EPp(convert) 52% p(FG) 82%
(1:22) 3-C.York 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
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Q2 CLE 4th & 11 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(14:57) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 40 yards to CIN 24, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 18-I.Williams to CIN 26 for 2 yards (31-M.Ford).
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Q2 CIN 4th & 2 at the 66Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EPp(convert) 63%
(13:20) 8-R.Rehkow punts 43 yards to CLE 23, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.
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Q2 CLE 4th & 16 at the 83Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(11:45) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to CIN 40, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 18-I.Williams to 50 for 10 yards (40-N.Watson, 12-R.McLeod).
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Q2 CLE 4th & 9 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(4:02) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to CIN 19, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 18-I.Williams to CIN 32 for 13 yards (43-M.Diabate).
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Q2 CIN 4th & 14 at the 41Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 54%
(:03) 3-C.York 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
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Q3 CIN 4th & 9 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(11:20) 8-R.Rehkow punts 45 yards to CLE 18, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 11-J.Proche pushed ob at CLE 30 for 12 yards (26-T.Anderson).
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Q3 CIN 4th & 16 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(4:28) 8-R.Rehkow punts 62 yards to CLE 18, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 11-J.Proche to CLE 36 for 18 yards (45-M.Njongmeta; 89-D.Sample).
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Q4 CIN 4th & 1 at the 71Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EPp(convert) 74%
(11:26) 8-R.Rehkow punts 56 yards to CLE 15, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.
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Q4 CLE 4th & 8 at the 59 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.39 EPp(convert) 36%
(3:00) (Shotgun) 17-D.Thompson-Robinson pass short left to 85-D.Njoku ran ob at CIN 47 for 12 yards.
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Q4 CLE 4th & 16 at the 57 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.40 EPp(convert) 26%
(:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-D.Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete deep middle to 8-E.Moore (59-A.Davis-Gaither).