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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 28

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(1:22) 3-C.York 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO +1.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.44 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 28, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.12 EP
What Happened
  • 82% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 38, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP