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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 14 at the 41

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(:03) 3-C.York 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +2.40 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 41, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -0.46 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model