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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 16 at the 80

Cincinnati Bengals 17 – Cleveland Browns 6

What Actually Happened

(4:28) 8-R.Rehkow punts 62 yards to CLE 18, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 11-J.Proche to CLE 36 for 18 yards (45-M.Njongmeta; 89-D.Sample).

The Three Options

GO -2.51 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.99 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 80, worth -4.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 37, worth -1.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model