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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 66

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(13:20) 8-R.Rehkow punts 43 yards to CLE 23, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.93 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 66, worth -3.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 24, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP